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Tracking changing migration trends
A report by MPs has concluded that new ways of monitoring migration should be established as a priority.
Political clashes over recent migration trends show how numbers have become central to debating what the UK is - and what it may become.
A critical report from the Commons Treasury Committee points clearly to problems that have been raised time and again.
Reliable facts about the population are vital for a modern nation because those numbers dictate everything from how much tax can be raised to how it will ultimately be spent.
An apparent lack of hard facts about migration has town halls worried.
They say that unless the government can properly count people, local services will not get the right amount of money to serve them.
Many areas acknowledge they have gained economically from migration. But they also worry that the public spending needed to cope with a changing population, such as specialist language teaching in schools, hasn't been following.
And as one council chief told MPs, it doesn't matter to local authorities if someone has come from Poland or Putney if the statistics are not able to track them.
Difficult task
The UK is an exceptionally mobile society - and all the evidence suggests that the way people move has been changing.
When the Empire Windrush docked at Tilbury in 1948, its Caribbean passengers didn't really realise they had made a life-defining decision and it would prove difficult to turn back.
But today, particularly within Europe, it's a relatively cheap process to migrate - and also easy to change your mind and move on again.
Beyond the EU, sophisticated networks facilitating migration - from legal recruitment agents and advisors to shadowy people-smuggling operations, make movements an inescapable part of our world.
And so, for those who come to the UK and for those who emigrate, the decision can be a short-term lifestyle choice as much as anything else.
A Polish worker arriving today at Liverpool John Lennon Airport could spend six months in a North Wales factory, move on to spend the summer season on the Essex coast and then pack up and go home.
But the way we count people in the UK isn't designed to reflect this global reality.
Today in the UK there isn't a single comprehensive count of migration to and from our shores that can provide a fully meaningful set of figures for changes at national, regional and local level.
Tourism samples
One of the main tools is the long-criticised International Passenger Survey (IPS).
These estimates rely on interviews with a random sample of travellers coming in and out of the UK.
The problems with this survey can be seen in what we know about Poles who have shot from the 13th to the largest foreign group in the UK in just four years.
MPs said the 2005 IPS figures were calculated from interviews with 2,965 arrivals and 781 departures.
That's an average of 11 questionnaires a day for a nation that recorded an estimated 102 million annual visitors.
Nine out of 10 interviews took place at London's Heathrow airport.
Of those questioned, only 94 were from the new Eastern European worker nations.
Aviation figures show that huge numbers of Polish workers have been coming and going directly to regions thanks to budget airlines.
There are now 22 airports serving 10 Polish cities.
The IPS is good at counting tourists - but it was never designed for what is happening today.
And on the top of all of this, there is that much loved British institution, the Census. Once every 10 years it is a fantastically valuable picture of British life.
Critics say it may have had its day because, like the IPS, it does not capture these dynamic migration trends.
In their view, it is a work of history from the day of publication - rather than a living document that helps to predict the future.
Source: BBC News, Dominic Cacciani – Home Affairs Reporter
24/05/2008
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